The energy ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump would, in its current form, give Russia a considerable advantage without giving Ukraine anything in return. That is what the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in an analysis published on Tuesday, 13 October, which the broadcaster Radio Svoboda reports on. According to it, the agreement would ban Ukraine from attacking Russia’s most important energy facilities, while Russia would be allowed to continue its attacks on Ukrainian facilities.
The ISW refers to a White House representative who told the news outlet Axios on 11 October, on condition of anonymity, that Trump’s statement on stopping attacks on energy infrastructure concerned a “potential agreement” – not an already concluded treaty or an established ceasefire mode. The initiative aims at a moratorium on attacks on oil refineries, which could later be extended to other types of energy infrastructure. The news agency Reuters reported on 12 October, citing sources, that during talks in Miami US representatives had again strongly urged Kyiv to stop attacks on Russian refineries in order to build pressure on Moscow from that.
The ISW notes that, as of 12 October, Russia and Ukraine have not agreed to refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure, since Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities continue. Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces attacked a combined heat and power plant west of Kharkiv, gas production infrastructure facilities in the Kharkiv region and an oil depot in the town of Sarny in the Rivne region in the night of 12 October. Ukrainian forces carried out no attacks on Russian energy infrastructure that night.
A refinery moratorium with unequal consequences
The ISW bases its assessment on the structure of the energy industries of both countries. Russia has a large number of operating oil refineries, while Ukraine has only one. The proposed regime would also allow Russia to continue its attack campaign on Ukrainian power plants in the winter of 2026–2027 unhindered, because those facilities would not be protected. “In its current form, this proposal would give Russia a considerable advantage without giving Ukraine anything in return,” the report says.
The analysis also draws on Russian voices that openly justify rejecting the energy ceasefire. The deputy chairman of the defence committee of the Russian State Duma, Alexei Zhuravlyov, stated on 10 October that “everyone fully understands” that the main cause of the global diesel deficit is the war in the Middle East; attempts to present Ukrainian attacks as the cause were a great victory for Russia. A Russian military blogger also argued that agreeing to the “energy ceasefire” would be disadvantageous for Russia, because refraining from attacks on Ukrainian power plants would “deprive Russia of one of its most important means of pressure”. The ISW concludes that this rhetoric shows the Kremlin is committing to nothing less than a complete Russian victory in Ukraine and is not prepared to compromise on that goal.
How the announcement came about
On 11 October, Trump stated on social networks that both sides had agreed to an energy ceasefire that would take effect immediately. Moscow did not confirm the announcement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the news outlet Axios that the announcement had been “news” to him. On 12 October, Zelensky stated that Ukraine was ready to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries if Moscow in return ended its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Already on 11 October, Zelensky had written on Facebook that Ukraine was ready for this step “if Russia stops the attacks on our energy infrastructure”. All steps towards de-escalation must be reciprocal and accompanied by real guarantees, he stressed. In the post, Zelensky referred to the consequences of the Russian attacks during the week: in that week alone, Russia had fired around 1,450 aerial bombs, 75 missiles of various types and more than 1,640 attack drones, of which about 60 per cent were jet-powered. According to him, in Zaporizhzhia the search and rescue work at the site of an attack on a residential building was completed on the morning of 11 October; 20 people died, including four children.
The ISW expects the Kremlin to reject a halt to attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities before the winter. The Kremlin regularly rejects compromise proposals that would not bring Russia a one-sided advantage, the analysis says. For the people in Ukraine, this means that the danger of further attacks on electricity and heat supply remains high in the coming months.
Earlier coverage: Trump announces “energy truce” as Kyiv reports violations
