Germans born in 1965 or later will probably have to work longer than currently planned. The government’s pensions commission wants to tie the retirement age to life expectancy after 2031, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) says that will be necessary. On Friday the Bundestag debates a motion by the Left Party that aims to stop it. Here are the numbers behind the row.
What exactly is on the table?
The commission, set up in December 2025, presented 33 recommendations in June. The one at the heart of the dispute: of every year that people gain in life expectancy, eight months would go to working life and four to retirement. On the Federal Statistical Office’s mid-range assumptions, the standard retirement age would rise from 67 to roughly 67 years and six months between 2031 and 2041. Each age would be fixed at least five years ahead. The commission also wants to end penalty-free retirement after 45 contribution years and raise the earliest age for those with 35 years from 63 to 64.
At present the age rises in steps only until it reaches 67 in 2031. Nothing is law yet, but Merz and Labour Minister Bärbel Bas (SPD) received the proposals favourably in June. The DGB trade union confederation rejects both the automatic link and any further rise; the BDA employers’ association would prefer fixed steps written into law. The Greens broadly back reform of the “pension at 63” but say old-age poverty gets too little attention.
Why does the Left call life expectancy the wrong yardstick?
Its motion (Bundestag paper 21/8388) argues that “live longer, work longer” is too simple because life expectancy depends on social status and region. A government reply from March (paper 21/5099) supplies the data. Remaining life expectancy for men aged 65 rose from 17.55 years (2011/13) to 17.94 (2017/19), dropped to 17.50 by 2021/23 and now stands at 17.71. For women the figures are 20.79, 21.12, 20.76 and 20.91. The gap between the best and worst regions for men widened from 1.6 to 2.0 years, with Baden-Württemberg on top and Saxony-Anhalt at the bottom.
In that reply the government took no position on a link and has no plans to improve data on mortality by income group. That is a blind spot: a mechanism built on the average hits people in physically demanding jobs with shorter lives harder than office workers.
How firm is the commission’s arithmetic?
Less firm than the tidy figure of 67.5 suggests. The official population projection puts a two-year gain for men over 2012 somewhere between 2035 and 2056, and in the lowest scenario even a three-year gain is never reached within the projection period. The pandemic showed the curve can fall. A link would therefore move the retirement age automatically, at a pace and in a direction nobody can reliably foresee today. The commission itself recommends regular reviews by parliament or the Sozialbeirat advisory council.
The idea is not exotic abroad: according to the OECD, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia and Sweden link the retirement age at least partly to life expectancy. Germany has no such mechanism so far.
Our assessment: since the CDU/CSU and SPD broadly back the commission’s line, the Left’s motion is unlikely to win a majority in the plenary. The fight will more probably move to the details: protection for older cohorts, exemptions for punishing jobs, and whether to choose an automatic link or fixed legislated steps. No bill exists yet, and when one will arrive is open.
Sources: Bundestag (hib 789/2026), Bundestag, Drucksache 21/5099, Pensions commission: 33 recommendations, ms-aktuell
