The federal government’s planned parental allowance reform could relieve the federal budget far less than hoped: instead of the roughly €1.6 billion targeted by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, calculations by the Ifo branch in Dresden come to at most €880 million in the period from November 2027 to the end of 2030. That is reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung with reference to a dpa report; presse-augsburg.de also picked up the study on Wednesday, 21 October.
According to Ifo, the reason for the gap lies in the interaction of two goals of the reform. “The savings goal and the goal of greater father involvement in the planned parental allowance reform get in each other’s way. The more fathers the reform moves to take parental allowance, the less the state saves,” said Ifo researcher Kyra Puteanus. Fathers receive an average of €1,345 in parental allowance per month, mothers only €845. Almost 39 per cent of fathers receive the maximum amount, while for mothers it is just under 17 per cent.
What is therefore decisive is how many fathers will receive parental allowance in future. For children born in 2023, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office, it was almost every second father. If this share remains constant, the saving comes to €880 million. If the share rises by one percentage point each year, the saving falls to around €597 million, and with two percentage points to €311 million. From an annual increase of around 3.1 percentage points, the state saves nothing at all.
Most recently, the share of fathers grew by only 0.2 percentage points per year. “Since 2010, however, the share of fathers receiving parental allowance has almost doubled. A rapid increase is therefore not out of the question, especially if months would otherwise be forfeited,” said Ifo researcher Franziska Nuernbergk. The Süddeutsche Zeitung reproduces her addition to the effect that a rapid increase is not out of the question if months would otherwise be forfeited.
The reform draft from the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs provides for shortening the entitlement period from 14 to 12 months. Three months are then reserved for each parent, and the partners can divide six further months between them. If only one parent takes parental leave, there is a maximum of nine months of parental allowance. At the same time, the minimum amount is to rise from €300 to €330 and the maximum amount from €1,800 to €1,900. The reform is due to take effect on 1 November 2027.
For mothers, the state saves through the shorter duration, while for fathers additional costs arise. The study compares the costs of parental allowance with and without the reform for November 2027 to the end of 2030, separately for mothers and fathers. The basis is data from the Federal Statistical Office on children born in 2023, as well as its forecast of birth numbers; the parental allowance amounts were extrapolated using the growth rates from 2021 to 2025.
