US Donald Trump has threatened Iran with an unprecedented “economic war.” In the early hours of Thursday, he announced that any country supporting the survival of the mullah regime would face “massive economic consequences.”
The crucial question, however, is whether Trump’s economic war can have any effect without China. Beijing has so far refused to fully join US sanctions. Without Chinese cooperation, the sanctions remain porous.
China is unlikely to be blackmailed by Washington. The US has tried to pressure Chinese companies, but Beijing has shown no intention of giving up its trade relations with Tehran.
Moreover, Iran is no longer as dependent on oil exports as it once was. Even if the sanctions hurt, Tehran has alternatives, particularly trade with Russia and other partners.
An economic war that does not include China will hardly bring Iran to its knees. The US would need to persuade Beijing to make concessions, but so far it lacks the leverage.
Source: www.faz.net
