Ukrainian sociologist Yevheniya Bliznyuk, founder and CEO of Gradus, paints a sobering picture in a guest article for Ukrainska Pravda: the willingness of Ukrainian war refugees to return is waning with each year in exile. The third wave of the Gradus study on return factors shows that the decision depends less and less on the situation in Ukraine and increasingly on conditions in host countries.
Security loses importance
While security was the dominant motive for staying abroad at the start of the war, priorities are shifting. Respondents now cite pragmatic reasons above all: a secure standard of living, stable jobs, and children’s integration into local schools and daycare centers. Emotional motives such as the desire to be with family or to help rebuild Ukraine, on the other hand, drive the willingness to return.
53 percent of Ukrainian migrants say they still plan to return. But a significant portion of this group cannot say when this will happen. For the first time, the migration policies of host countries are becoming a decisive factor: extensions of temporary protection status or simplified legalization procedures directly affect the willingness to return.
Competition for its own citizens
Bliznyuk argues that Ukraine is entering a new phase of competition for its own citizens. It is no longer just about security, but about living conditions. The mere hope for an end to the war is no longer enough to motivate people to return. Policy must move away from the pure question of return and instead promote a transnational Ukrainian community that maintains contact with the homeland even from afar.
The sociologist warns against instilling guilt in refugees. Instead, institutional mechanisms are needed that allow Ukrainians abroad to remain part of the Ukrainian space – regardless of where they live. The loss of physical presence is a serious challenge, but the loss of ties to Ukraine would have far more severe consequences for the country’s demographic, economic, and cultural future.
Source: www.pravda.com.ua
