On Wednesday, the European gas price rose above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2022. According to consistent reports by Handelsblatt and orf.at, the TTF futures contract, which serves as the benchmark for wholesale prices, exceeded that mark during the day on the energy exchange in the Netherlands. At the start of September the price had still been below €70, and since the end of September it has been rising continuously.
The main cause is seen as the disruption on the energy markets caused by the Iran war. According to Handelsblatt, before that war began the gas price had stood at around €30. Since the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, only a small amount of gas can still be exported from the Middle East to the rest of the world. Around one fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) previously came from Qatar; according to analysts, LNG exports through the strait currently stand at a quarter of the pre-war volume.
There are further factors as well. t-online.de cites fears of a cold snap, increased demand from Asia – especially China, which recently filled its storage – and gas storage facilities that are significantly emptier than a year earlier. According to the European gas storage platform (Agsi), the storage facilities are currently just under 75 per cent full; a year earlier the figure was just under 83 per cent. In Germany, according to Agsi, reserves stand at 61.6 per cent, compared with around 75 per cent in 2025.
David Luff, gas market analyst at Argus Media, told Handelsblatt: “The recent price rise has pushed European gas prices for the rest of the winter beyond all traditional price markers.” He warns: “Above €100 per megawatt-hour, the question increasingly arises as to what price level would be enough to trigger state intervention to curb demand.” Martin Senior, also of Argus Media, told Handelsblatt that sustained demand from Asia had shifted LNG cargoes away from Europe and towards Asia, thereby driving European prices up.
Prices last reached such highs in the course of the Ukraine war: according to Handelsblatt, in August 2022 they briefly rose above €300 per megawatt-hour, while orf.at cites a peak of almost €340. Since spring 2023, however, they have been quoted almost continuously below the €50 mark.
For most households, the current rise initially has no immediate effect, as they have longer-running contracts. According to t-online.de and orf.at, price changes on the exchange reach existing customers only with a time lag. According to forecasts, the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed until March 2027; in the event of a particularly cold winter, according to t-online.de, a rise to around €130 per megawatt-hour would be possible.
