European intelligence services have warned executives of defence companies that Russia is intensifying its attempts to attack them. According to Ukrainska Pravda, citing the Financial Times, the Kremlin has, according to representatives of five European intelligence services, issued orders to expand sabotage and hybrid operations in Europe in order to significantly weaken support for Kyiv in the coming months.
According to the services’ assessment, attacks on European civilians, which had long been considered taboo even for Russian special services, are also becoming an increasingly important part of these plans. Targets could include executives and other senior employees of arms companies, but also managers of smaller companies, especially in drone production or the manufacture of their components. According to the Financial Times, responsibility for possible attacks is largely attributed to the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU).
The President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Sinan Selen, warned, according to the Financial Times, to German legislators: “Russia is engaged in targeted planning of acts of violence against individuals by state or state-controlled actors. We are observing a further development of these actions in terms of targets, methods and actors involved, including the use of organised crime structures.” The BfV has significantly stepped up its work with employees and the leadership of German arms companies and recommends, among other things, the involvement of private close protection teams.
Several managers of defence companies told the Financial Times that in the past six months they had increased their personal protection measures following concrete recommendations from state security services. Others said they only make such arrangements when travelling abroad. According to the report, a senior representative of a European intelligence agency said the threat level in Europe had risen “for property as well as for people”. The Russian side is increasingly relying on mixed networks: officers work more frequently with organised criminal groups, and tasks such as reconnaissance, logistics, planning and execution are distributed among different cells or individuals instead of relying on “one-way” agents recruited online for money. In some cases, conspiracies have already been uncovered and stopped; in others, the authorities have observed suspicious activities, including surveillance of individuals’ daily lives at home and at work.
A representative of the European intelligence services stressed that for Russia the psychological effect is paramount: “The mere fact that people feel they could become a target achieves the desired effect. They want people to think twice before doing business with Ukraine.”
How the Kremlin has been targeting arms managers since 2024
The executives of Europe’s largest defence companies have been on heightened alert since the beginning of 2024. At that time, according to the Financial Times, US and German intelligence services uncovered a Russian assassination plot against the CEO of the German arms group Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger. In January 2025, Nato officially confirmed that Russia had intended to kill Papperger. In early August, a Russian couple was arrested in Sweden after settling near a property where a person with close protection lived – this was the CEO of the Swedish defence company Saab, Mikael Johansson.
As early as the beginning of October, WELT AM SONNTAG and the British “Telegraph” reported, after confidential talks with security authorities, that European services expect an increase in Russian sabotage in the coming months. A senior Nato representative told the newspaper that the alliance expects more aggressive communication from Moscow and an expansion of hybrid attacks in Europe – also as the Kremlin’s reaction to the West’s build-up of defence capabilities. “We believe that Russia is currently under pressure that is remarkably high – probably as high as never before during the war and at no point during Vladimir Putin’s time in office in Russia,” the representative said.
Analysts of the German government also expect an intensification of the attacks. The failed drone attack on Ukrainian Antonov aircraft at Leipzig Airport in August was said to be an expression of a fundamental development. Germany, as the main supporter of Ukraine, is particularly in focus. CDU foreign policy politician Roderich Kiesewetter told the newspaper that he expects a noticeable increase in Russian sabotage and terrorist attacks; Russia would also accept civilian casualties. “The attacks clearly have a military component. Russia sees itself at war with Nato, the EU and us,” Kiesewetter said. He demands that military support for Ukraine be increased “substantially”, for example by supplying long-range weapons such as the Taurus cruise missile. Green politician Robin Wagener, a deputy member of the Defence Committee, said: “Russian state terror against EU members is intended to weaken Ukraine and our will to defend ourselves.” He warns of a broad spectrum of possible attacks, from cyberattacks and sabotage to assassinations, and does not rule out military provocations, for example in the Baltic Sea.
Former Austrian intelligence chief Omar Haijawi-Pirchner sees a long-term strategy behind the Russian activities: the Kremlin understands its relationship with Europe as a “systemic conflict” and will expand drone overflights as well as attacks on arms companies and critical infrastructure. Former BND President Gerhard Schindler told the newspaper that the aim of the hybrid attacks is to weaken support for Ukraine. “The population should be afraid of a direct military confrontation and therefore doubt the sense of aid for Ukraine.” Russia’s President Putin is pursuing two central goals: military success in Ukraine and weakening support for Kyiv. “That is why he will increase both, namely military pressure on Ukraine and hybrid pressure on the West,” Schindler said. The Russian embassy rejected the “unfounded accusations” regarding an alleged Russian involvement in “sabotage activities” when asked by WELT AM SONNTAG.
What this means for German companies and aid to Ukraine
According to the policy-makers’ wishes, businesses are to protect themselves more strongly against drones in future. According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the industry association BDI has set up a working group with almost 100 companies. Authorities are currently examining how companies can do more to defend against drones over critical infrastructure or their premises. The BDI is demanding that the government first clarify open liability issues.
The German security authorities, together with friendly services, have already been able to uncover and thwart Russian plans. In defending state-controlled terrorist activities, it is crucial to confront the other side on an equal footing, the Hamburger Morgenpost said. It is therefore right that, according to the German government’s plans, the German intelligence services are to receive more powers than before in order to be able to actively avert dangers to the country. BfV President Selen had warned in the hearing: “We are being attacked now, not only in 2029.”
Editor’s note: The assessment that the psychological effect is paramount for Moscow comes from the cited intelligence representatives and security authorities, not from the editorial team.
