The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses the risk of a ground offensive from Belarus as low. Currently, there is no evidence of troop deployments to the border sufficient for an invasion. Russia also lacks the reserves to support such a push.
At the same time, the ISW views recent statements by Belarusian Security Council Oleksandr Volfovych as part of a Russian disinformation campaign. On May 26, Volfovych claimed that Belarusian forces had recorded 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the border. The ISW calls these claims absurd and sees them as an attempt to justify future Russian attacks from Belarus.
The analysts believe Russia will use the alleged drone violations to conduct “retaliatory strikes” against strategic targets in western Ukraine. Particularly at risk is the M06 highway (Kyiv–Tschop), a key supply route.
Source: 24tv.ua
