According to the NDR, citing a representative survey by Infratest dimap, the AfD would get 36 percent, the governing SPD 29 percent. The Greens would be at five percent, the Left at twelve percent. Together, red-red-green would reach 46 percent – one percentage point more than the other parties represented in the state parliament. This would make a first three-party coalition in the history of the federal state possible.
Manuela Schwesig (SPD) could remain head of government despite a second-place finish. The SPD gained two percentage points compared to the May survey. Schwesig herself showed fighting spirit: “It’s still a long way, but at the same time it’s motivation to use the last weeks before the election to convince people that our country can be governed stably and reliably.” The AfD stagnates at 36 percent; its top candidate Leif-Erik Holm is aiming for a sole government.
The CDU falls to nine percent, the Left remains at twelve percent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) loses one point and stands at four percent – meaning it would not be represented in the state parliament. The survey was conducted from July 2 to 6, 2026, among 1,167 eligible voters. The margin of error is two to three percentage points. The state election takes place on September 20.
Source: www.ndr.de
