Even with the first missile attack, it was clear that the United States could not win this war. For decades, all Pentagon war games for the Persian Gulf had shown the same outcome: if the hardliners in Tehran feel existentially threatened, they block the Strait of Hormuz and attack neighboring states. This insight was common knowledge – except to Donald Trump.
Trump considers himself omniscient and despises experts. He staffs his administration with people who are utterly unsuited for their tasks. Take the Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth had poorly planned the campaign, not even securing supplies for the Marines. When the Iranians attacked US bases in the Gulf, the supply chains collapsed.
Conditions on the aircraft carrier
Parents back home are now sending care packages to their children on warships. On the aircraft carrier “Abraham Lincoln,” conditions were so catastrophic that a sailor jumped overboard in despair and took his own life. For the president, this is not only tragic but also embarrassing.
Trump wishes he could turn back time: “Oh, if only the Strait of Hormuz were open again and gas at home cheap again!” But the toothpaste is out of the tube. For now, Iran holds sway in the Gulf – of all adversaries, one that would normally be dismissed as second-rate.
Missiles running out for the US
Trump no longer wants to fire missiles because the US is running out of air defense interceptors. Instead, he is relying on even harsher sanctions. Those already exist and have not worked. The Chinese, whose cooperation would be crucial, are not playing along. And the Iranian leadership is willing to inflict endless economic pain on its own people.
The superpower United States has taken on a second-rate regional power and come out on the losing side. The geostrategic consequences are not yet fully foreseeable. In the Persian Gulf, the Americans are pulling back; the Pentagon is considering not rebuilding the destroyed bases.
The Arab oil monarchies are already looking for new partners and protectors – in Beijing, they are likely listening attentively. Taiwan, with its freedom and democracy, is now in greater danger than ever before. In Ukraine, the shortage of Patriot air defense systems is worsening. And for Western Europe, the risk of a Russian attack has become real.
Trump could have at least sensed all of this. Now he is stuck in the dead end he walked into of his own accord.
Source: Tagesschau
