US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine could escalate into a “significantly broader and far more dangerous regional conflict”. Speaking in Lisbon on Thursday, 8 October, Rubio said a prolonged stalemate could drive one or both sides to “increasingly dangerous actions” – such as sabotage in neighbouring NATO states or attacks that could rapidly enlarge the scale of the war. That is according to the Ukrainian service of Radio Svoboda, whose question Rubio was answering.
Rubio spoke at the end of a trip that took him to Iceland, Greece and Portugal. Asked by Radio Svoboda, he said the US did not believe there was a military solution. “Ultimately, we are convinced that this war must end, and a negotiated solution is the better and faster way,” the secretary of state said. Washington remained ready to support a settlement. The risk of escalation should rather move Moscow and Kyiv towards talks.
What does Rubio’s warning mean for NATO?
Rubio linked his warning to a plea for higher defence spending. He did not want to speak of “spending more” when it came to “more investment in defence”, he said, referring to Portugal’s goal of meeting NATO targets by 2035. Calls for higher military spending should not be understood as hostile. NATO is a defensive alliance, and its authority depends on the capabilities of its members. Countries had different starting points, but each must develop “the maximum possible defence capabilities”. Rubio also called for closer cooperation on modern weapons and interoperability.
The figures back him up: according to NATO’s annual report for 2025 published on 26 March, seven member states spent more than three per cent of their gross domestic product on defence. Poland topped the list with 4.3 per cent, followed by Lithuania (4.0 per cent) and Latvia (3.74 per cent). Three countries had already reached the 3.5 per cent target set for 2035, which the 32 states agreed at the summit in The Hague. European NATO members and Canada increased their spending by more than 19 per cent. The US came in at 3.19 per cent. In total, NATO states spent around 1.63 trillion dollars (about 1.41 trillion euros) in 2025. All members reached the two per cent target for the first time.
Kyiv pins hopes on sanctions and air defence
Meanwhile, Ukraine is pressing ahead with its diplomatic efforts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday in Pryluky that the Ukrainian negotiating delegation would travel to the US this week. They wanted to strengthen the negotiating path because the US “must increase pressure with sanctions and other steps, with financial aid and separate support for air defence” to force Putin to the negotiating table. Already on 7 October, foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi had stated that Ukraine was ready for several ceasefire formats – including a complete and unconditional ceasefire, a ceasefire in the Black Sea mediated by Turkey and Egypt, a food ceasefire mediated by India, and an energy ceasefire mediated by the US. It was up to Russia to show readiness.
Moscow has so far rejected such signals. President Vladimir Putin on 1 October at the Valdai Discussion Club near Moscow rejected a mutual renunciation of attacks on energy infrastructure and civilian ships as “pointless”. The conditions of an energy ceasefire did not correspond to Moscow’s interests. According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin thereby repeated its refusal to make substantial compromises in the peace process.
For people in Germany, the ongoing blockade means above all one thing: the war remains a burden on security and prices. Should the US change its military presence in Europe, European NATO states would have to take on more responsibility – a point Rubio emphasised without giving details on future troop deployments. One thing is clear: the negotiations are stalled, and the next steps lie with Washington and Moscow. The Ukrainian delegation is travelling to the US this week; whether it brings movement to the deadlocked talks is open.
