Donald Trump has called on Ukraine to replace its president. Kyiv should get “a new leader who can make a deal”, he said on Saturday, adding that “it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president”, according to Axios. The trigger is diesel: a day earlier, after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Washington eased sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Volodymyr Zelensky calls it a “birthday gift to Putin”.
Why diesel of all things?
The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 135 on 9 October. It authorises the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, expressly including imports into the US, until 7 April 2027. Debits to US accounts of Russia’s central bank, National Wealth Fund and finance ministry are not covered, and other sanctions programmes stay in force.
The backdrop: Ukraine has hit Russian refineries for months. Moscow banned diesel exports in July, and prices rose worldwide. On 13 September Trump publicly told Kyiv to “stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia”; US diesel was then above $6 a gallon, with Congress up for election in November. A US official told Axios that Zelensky ignored about six American requests. Zelensky’s counter-offer – no refinery strikes if Russia stops hitting Ukrainian power plants – was rejected by Trump, the official said.
Reported volumes differ. According to Russian media, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak cited 300,000 tonnes in October, 500,000 in November and one million in December, with up to three million tonnes a month possible later.
Moscow praised the tone of the call. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described about 90 minutes of a “very substantive and, I would say, friendly” conversation; Trump congratulated Putin on his birthday. Ushakov also said Russia’s position on the aims of the war has not changed, and that Moscow will decide when to resume talks with Kyiv after the Ukrainian attacks on election day.
Three ways this could play out
In Miami, US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent eight hours with a Ukrainian delegation on security guarantees, territory, reconstruction and a roadmap for EU accession. A Ukrainian official told Axios the Americans threatened to cut intelligence sharing; a US official denies it. Neither claim can be verified. Witkoff and Kushner are considering trips to Moscow and Kyiv next week.
Our assessment, with caution: the licence is time-limited and revocable, so Washington keeps leverage. First scenario: Kyiv quietly eases its refinery strikes, perhaps in return for protection of its energy grid – that would help Moscow’s revenues but calm Washington. Second: Kyiv holds its line, the US raises the pressure and the row escalates; a change of leadership in Kyiv cannot be forced from outside, if only because martial law rules out elections. Third: the Witkoff–Kushner trips produce a framework in which diesel is just one element. The second or third looks more likely to us, though nothing is certain.
Axios calls it the most serious crisis between the two presidents since their on-camera blow-up in February 2025. For Europe the question is whether Kyiv now needs firmer backing from Berlin, Paris and Warsaw – and who fills the gap on security guarantees.
Sources: Axios, OFAC General License 135 (HSF Kramer), Lenta.ru (Ushakov), Mezha, Spectrum News
