High gas prices and changing market conditions due to the Iran conflict are causing "significant uncertainties regarding winter 2026/27," according to the Initiative Energy Storage (Ines). As of May 1, German gas storage was only 26 percent full, significantly below normal levels. Although traders have booked a capacity of 76 percent for November 1, it remains uncertain whether the storage will actually be filled to that extent.
"Gas is currently cheaper for the upcoming winter than for summer. This leaves the market without any economic incentives to store gas in the facilities," the association's analysis states. Ines Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann noted, "We already know from last winter that a booking and filling situation of 76 percent is only sufficient if the weather cooperates."
Should winter temperatures drop to levels similar to those in 2010, the association calculates a shortfall of 20 terawatt-hours of gas in the first quarter of 2027. "In model calculations, over 35 percent of gas consumption cannot be covered on certain days," Ines reports. The association recommends EU-wide monitoring of storage levels, consumption, and imports, as well as the expansion of gas and hydrogen infrastructure.
In 2025, storage operators recorded a gas consumption of 910 terawatt-hours, which is 6.9 percent more than the previous year. The cold January of 2026 further depleted the storage, but due to high prices resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, they are not refilling as usual.
