According to a report by Spiegel, citing an analysis by the German Economic Institute (IW) obtained by the magazine, the labor market gap could reach around 4.3 million workers in 2036. Just two years ago, the institute estimated the difference between new entrants and retirees at just under three million. The new forecast is thus about 1.3 million people higher.
The reason for the worsening shortage is a new population growth forecast. According to this, Germany’s population is expected to fall to around 81.1 million by 2045 – 2.9 percent less than today. In the previous forecast from 2024, the IW had still assumed moderate growth until 2040.
As one reason for the population decline, the IW cites the federal government’s migration policy shift. Immigrants are losing interest in Germany, “also because of the ongoing weakness of the economy and growing labor market problems,” Spiegel quotes from the analysis. Added to this is the aging of society: in the second half of the 2020s, the largest baby boomer cohorts are reaching retirement age. Currently, 14.1 million baby boomers are still below this threshold; by 2030, there will be only 7.6 million. “By 2036, the baby boomer generation will have fully reached the statutory retirement age,” the study states.
Source: www.spiegel.de
