Status: Thursday, 29 October. The count in Israel’s parliamentary election is complete apart from ballots in double envelopes, and the core of the result will not change: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 of 120 seats, the opposition around Gadi Eisenkot 48, and the Arab-led lists 19. A majority needs 61. Neither side gets there alone.
Earlier coverage: at 84 per cent counted, the Netanyahu bloc was also short of a majority. What is new is that the numbers have settled. Likud remains the largest party with 26 or 27 seats, depending on the outlet; Eisenkot’s Yashar has 21. In 2022 Netanyahu’s bloc won 64 seats (Handelsblatt), so the loss is about eleven.
According to the Times of Israel, roughly 430,000 to 480,000 double-envelope votes, cast mainly by soldiers, prisoners and diplomats abroad, are still to be counted. One seat is worth about 40,000 votes, so individual seats could still move. Official results are expected on 4 November, after which President Isaac Herzog will consult the factions. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
A record for Arab parties, and no partner for them
The Joint List and Ra’am together hold 19 seats, an all-time high for Arab-led parties; the previous record was 15 (Times of Israel). Arithmetically, the opposition plus these lists would reach 67. Democrats leader Yair Golan said: “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120.” Politically the sum is fragile: apart from Golan’s Democrats, every Zionist party has ruled out working with Ra’am or the Joint List. Joint List chair Yousef Jabareen said his party was ready to “pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government”.
Eisenkot said the public had “chosen change”. Netanyahu urged the “Zionist majority to come to its senses and unite”.
Three ways forward, each with a catch
First, an opposition government backed by the Arab lists. It would have the numbers but not the consent: Eisenkot’s conditions and Avigdor Liberman’s refusal to sit with Arab parties stand in the way. Second, a national-unity government. Liberman would consider only a Likud without Netanyahu (i24NEWS), while Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation. As long as Netanyahu leads Likud and stays, that door is shut. Third, a new election: Israel held five between 2019 and 2022. Herzog urged leaders to approach talks with “an open mind” to avoid one.
Our assessment, with caution: the most likely outcome is weeks of negotiations under a caretaker Netanyahu. What matters is less the seat count than whether Likud parts with its leader or Liberman’s camp drops its veto on Arab parties. Neither looks likely in the coming weeks.
Party-level figures differ between outlets (Joint List 11 to 13, Ra’am 6 to 8 seats); the bloc totals of 53, 48 and 19 agree.
Sources: Times of Israel, i24NEWS, Ynetnews, Jerusalem Post, Handelsblatt
