For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, a woman could become head of state – and the Federal Convention looks set to elect her on the first ballot. Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Monday that the CDU/CSU is putting forward Ilse Aigner (CSU), president of the Bavarian Landtag since 2018, to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier. On Tuesday the 61-year-old presented herself to the CDU/CSU, SPD and Green parliamentary groups in the Bundestag.
The vote is set for 30 January 2027 in the Bundestag chamber. Steinmeier’s second term ends on 18 March 2027, with the handover expected the day after. Merz said the country needs “someone who brings our country together” and described Aigner as a president “with dignity and heart”. Aigner called it a “mission”: “I want to work for democracy”, which she said is “under pressure from within and without”. She wants to be the candidate of a “strong centre”, build bridges and remain a “citizen among citizens”.
Why the arithmetic favours her
The Basic Law requires a majority of the Convention’s members in the first two ballots (Article 54(6)); only in the third does a plurality suffice. The Convention has 1,260 members – 630 members of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates – so 631 votes are needed. According to wahlrecht.de estimates cited by Tagesspiegel, the CDU/CSU will hold 431–432 seats and the SPD 251–253: 682–685 together, roughly 50 above the threshold. The SPD leadership recommends voting for Aigner, as does the Green leadership, whose delegation of more than 190 (estimated 193–197) would pad the margin.
On paper the Union does not need the Greens. Politically, the broad line-up is deliberate: SPD leader Lars Klingbeil said it was “no weakness” for the democratic centre to share a candidate but a “sign of strength for our democracy”. CSU chief Markus Söder wants Aigner to be electable beyond the coalition majority. That is more than courtesy: the ballot is secret, and a narrow win with defectors would be a weak start for the first woman in the post. Our assessment: victory on the first ballot is very likely; the open question is the size of the margin.
AfD and Left: the row has already begun
The AfD is unlikely to back her; it is estimated to have around 260 delegates, making it the second-largest group. Beatrix von Storch called the nomination a “Armutszeugnis” – a sign of failure. Aigner then declined an invitation to the AfD parliamentary group; her chief of staff Eric Markuse said: “That makes a visit to the AfD group unnecessary.” Alice Weidel replied that on non-partisanship “everything has really been said”. CSU Landesgruppe leader Alexander Hoffmann defended the refusal, saying the AfD and the Left had no real interest in a serious debate with the candidate.
The Left was not invited to the presentation round either. Parliamentary group leader Sören Pellmann said the door remains open and that a Left candidate should be allowed to introduce themselves in the same way. According to dpa, the AfD and the Left intend to field their own candidates; our sources do not yet name them. A taz profile portrays Aigner as down-to-earth rather than a great orator – “one of us” – and reads the choice as defusing talk of Söder’s chancellor ambitions. That is the author’s judgement, not established fact.
What stays open for Munich and Bavaria
For Bavaria it is a landmark moment: Aigner comes from Feldkirchen-Westerham in Upper Bavaria, sat in the Bundestag from 1998 to 2013 and served as federal consumer protection and agriculture minister from 2008 to 2013. Her move to Berlin would vacate the presidency of the Landtag at the Maximilianeum; who succeeds her there, and who leads the CSU in Upper Bavaria, is unclear. Those decisions will wait until after the January vote.
For people who live in Germany without a vote – many Ukrainians among them – the office is chiefly a voice and a symbol: the president holds little executive power but sets the tone of the debate on cohesion and democracy. That is exactly the theme Aigner has chosen. The term is five years, with one consecutive re-election allowed.
Sources: CDU Deutschlands, Tagesspiegel/dpa, Tagesspiegel, t-online, taz, Basic Law, Art. 54
