US, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are back at the table in Abu Dhabi for the first time in nine months. The talks are scheduled for 10 and 11 November, with no results yet (as of midday, 10 November). The shape of the bargaining is already visible, though.
Who is at the table, and who is not
Washington is represented by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Ukraine’s team is led by Rustem Umerov, with Kyrylo Budanov, the president’s chief of staff, and David Arakhamia, head of the ruling party’s parliamentary group. Moscow has beefed up its delegation, according to Interfax: presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky leads it, joined by deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov and a senior General Staff officer. That suggests an agenda that touches politics and the front line at once.
Europeans are in Abu Dhabi but not in the room. Russia rejects their participation; French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Europe’s security cannot be discussed with Moscow before a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky has warned it is dangerous for Russia to want a new European security order negotiated while the war goes on.
What has changed since February?
The two earlier rounds, in January and February, produced mainly a prisoner swap: on 5 February both sides agreed to exchange 157 prisoners each. On the core issue there was no movement: Moscow demands that Ukraine withdraw from the part of Donbas it still holds, and Kyiv refuses.
What is new is the order of play Washington hints at. An unnamed US official said both sides were privately showing “flexibility” on territory, but that a territorial deal would probably come last, after security arrangements. Witkoff listed post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian steps as topics. That fits last week’s episode in Oleshky, where the two countries’ human rights ombudsmen oversaw a local ceasefire to evacuate civilians, brokered with the help of Melania Trump. A small format, but a precedent.
Whether that sequencing holds is unclear. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov agreed with Donald Trump that Ukraine will have “a somewhat different shape” after a deal, adding that it is “already a different country”. That sounds less like flexibility than fixed territorial expectations. Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko expects no “tangible progress”. Zelensky himself said on 6 November that the meeting in the Emirates must be made “productive”, and that Ukraine had passed proposals for “realistic outcomes” to the Americans.
How to measure success
Our assessment, with due caution: the likeliest outcome is a humanitarian package, meaning another prisoner exchange or corridors on the Oleshky model. A limited truce on energy infrastructure would be real progress, but there is no sign of one yet; Russian strikes hit substations again overnight. A territorial deal within two days is unlikely.
The calendar makes this round an opening move: a Trump–Xi–Putin meeting is possible at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November, the “coalition of the willing” meets in Berlin at about the same time, and the G20 follows in Florida in mid-December. Zelensky hopes for a meeting with Putin; Chancellor Merz sees no serious engagement from Moscow so far. Rather than the word “constructive”, watch for two things: a concrete agreement with a date, and whether Moscow ever lets Europe join the table.
Earlier coverage: Abu Dhabi talks: US seeks “final end” to Ukraine war.
Sources: President of Ukraine, Al Jazeera, News Tribune, Liga.net, ZDFheute
