For the first time since February, substantive talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US began in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. According to the Guardian, the US representatives say they want to achieve a “final end” to the war. According to the news agency AP, the talks in the capital of the United Arab Emirates will last two days and are expected to focus primarily on security guarantees.
According to Euronews, on which the Berliner Zeitung relies, the special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are travelling for the US. Kushner, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, wrote on X that he and Witkoff were working on a “negotiated solution that can bring lasting peace and create the conditions for a sovereign, secure and prosperous Ukraine in a more stable European security environment”.
A “long-term security architecture” between Russia and Europe
According to the Guardian, the core of the US proposal is a new “long-term security architecture” between Russia and Europe. A US government official said in advance that the US would “need Europe at the table” to end the war. Also conceivable were a revival of the NATO-Russia Council, suspended after the Russian invasion in 2022, and possibly a easing of sanctions against Russia in order to reach an agreement.
In addition, the US had discussed with Russia possible security guarantees for Ukraine similar to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. “What they would get would be practically very similar to NATO,” the US official said. Whether this would happen would have to be discussed by Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Critics doubt, however, what such guarantees would actually consist of in a crisis: Article 5 does not oblige NATO states to defend one another, and hybrid attacks such as cyberattacks blur the threshold for a military response.
US special envoy Kushner described the possible framework in general terms on Monday: the US was striving for “stronger consultations, reliable crisis communication, more military transparency and mutual measures to reduce escalation risks” – “with full respect for the sovereignty and independent decision-making of each nation”.
Europe is at the table too – but how is unclear
Originally the meeting was planned as a purely trilateral format. Now, according to the Berliner Zeitung, representatives of the European Commission and the European Council are also taking part. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on X on Monday: “The EU will be represented together with our partners.” According to Euronews, Björn Seibert, von der Leyen’s head of cabinet, is leading the Commission team, and Anna-Maria Boura, foreign policy adviser to European Council President António Costa, is leading the Council team.
A senior EU diplomat confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that, in addition to the EU and NATO, national security advisers from France, Germany and the United Kingdom would also be represented. However, the exact format is still unclear, reports the Berliner Zeitung. The Financial Times had reported, citing three people familiar with the preparations, that the security advisers of the three countries as well as the chiefs of staff of the European Commission President and the NATO Secretary General were to take part in parts of the talks.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday on the sidelines of a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting: “We already have a European security architecture. It includes international agreements under which Russia has entered into obligations, including on sovereignty and territorial integrity. The problem is that Russia does not respect these agreements.” A European security official from a participating country told the Guardian that the US proposal was still unclear; they were preparing for the possibility that Washington would propose serious concessions to Russia in Abu Dhabi.
According to the Kyiv Independent, on which the Berliner Zeitung relies, Ukraine is led by Rustem Umerov, the head of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service. According to Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet, the delegation also includes Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service, his first deputy Serhii Kyslytsia, the deputy head of the HUR military intelligence service Vadym Skibitskyi, and the parliamentary group leader of the Servant of the People party, Davyd Arakhamia. According to the Berliner Zeitung, Russia is represented by Kremlin adviser Vladimir Medinsky and deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin.
Moscow and Kyiv stick to their core demands
The positions remain far apart. According to AP, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions – territories that Moscow annexed in September 2022 in violation of international law but never fully captured. He also demands that Ukraine renounce NATO membership, strict upper limits for its military and an end to restrictions on the Russian language and the Moscow-aligned Orthodox Church in Ukraine. Putin rejects a general end to hostilities because it would only give Ukrainian troops time to recover and resupply.
Zelensky rejects the demand for a voluntary territorial concession. Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the BBC, that Moscow and Kyiv are showing “some flexibility” behind the scenes on the question of who should control the eastern Ukrainian regions after the war. A US official told the BBC: “They will not solve the Donetsk question and the territorial question until they know what the security architecture after the war will look like. And we cannot conclusively resolve one without the other.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that there had “already been some progress in how this architecture should look”. But first they had to get beyond the conflict.
Scepticism in Berlin: “Nothing will come of all this”
According to WirtschaftsWoche, scepticism is growing in the German government. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stresses that Russia must first stop its attacks, then Kyiv needs robust security guarantees, and Europe must be at the table. CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen told WirtschaftsWoche: “My expectation is that nothing will come of all this. Putin lacks the interest and also the real option to end his war.” Russia’s war economy cannot be converted to peacetime operation without social upheaval, and Putin is betting that time is on his side – with a view to elections in France and the AfD in Germany.
The talks come amid a tense military situation. According to WirtschaftsWoche, shortly before the meeting Moscow hit Ukraine with a new wave of attacks, with more than 300 drones, numerous deaths in the Odesa region and hours-long power outages across regions. Hundreds of Ukrainian drones had crossed the border, and an oil refinery near Leningrad had caught fire. According to Ukrainska Pravda, Ukraine does not expect a breakthrough in the first round but hopes for the second round.
Editor’s note: According to the available sources, it is open whether the talks will continue beyond 11 November and in what format the Europeans will be involved.
