“Our work is not over with the first humanitarian mission,” Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on 10 November. His office is preparing a second evacuation from Oleshky and nearby villages. There is no date: “humanitarian and security conditions” must be agreed first. People who have already applied will be told once a safe mechanism exists. The elderly, people with disabilities, the seriously ill and families with children go first.
The first mission ended just over a week ago. What it achieved, and what it left open:
- Duration: the local ceasefire took effect at 3 a.m. Kyiv time on 27 October and expired at 10.59 p.m. on 1 November (Kyiv Post).
- Numbers: nearly 800 people were evacuated, US First Lady Melania Trump wrote on X on 1 November. Twenty-five buses with 750 seats had been readied. How many went to Ukraine and how many to Russia has not been disclosed.
- Route into Ukraine: by bus to Anapa, by plane to Homel in Belarus, then overland (Vatican News). Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said evacuees entered Ukraine via the Chernihiv region.
- Mediators: Pope Leo XIV spoke to Putin on 16 October and to Zelensky on 19 October; Melania Trump announced the truce on 23 October. Lubinets coordinated the mission with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova.
Was the pause used for military ends?
That became the dispute of the past week. Ukraine’s General Staff said on 2 November that Russia used the lull to rotate units, fortify positions, shield roads against drones and bring up ammunition. Sky News analysed drone footage from a Ukrainian unit showing soldiers, vehicles and supplies moving around Oleshky, and soldiers carrying away boxes of food meant for civilians. Lubinets disputed part of the material: some vehicles bore red crosses and were clearing mines under supervision.
On 8 November President Volodymyr Zelensky was blunter: “Under the cover of the humanitarian operation in Oleshky, the Russian army carried out a significant rotation of personnel and equipment on the left bank,” he wrote, adding that additional occupying forces had been brought into Oleshky and its surroundings. Ukraine’s UN ambassador Andrii Melnyk repeated the charge on 9 November. Zelensky gave no figure; media reports citing the 34th Marine Brigade speak of more than 1,000 troops, which cannot be independently verified. No response from Russia’s Defence Ministry has been reported; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov merely acknowledged Melania Trump’s “significant contribution”.
Our assessment: both things can be true. Any pause helps both sides, and Lubinets says Kyiv recorded no violations on its side. But the row explains why Kyiv is likely to demand verification in any larger truce, and how strong that argument is will depend on whether drone footage is checked by third parties.
What awaits those who stayed?
By the Kherson regional military administration’s count, which its head Oleksandr Prokudin gave to Ukrainska Pravda, about 1,300 people remain in the occupied town. The latest aid has not been handed out and sits in a single warehouse, he said; residents who ask are told it is not for them. That is Prokudin’s account and cannot be checked from outside. He rates 34 other settlements on the left bank of the Dnipro as critical and 58 as moderate, with shortages of gas, electricity, water and food and a “very hard” winter ahead. Donors declined to deliver aid by drone because cargo is shot down too often. Lubinets announced monthly aid for those who remain.
Why a second attempt will be harder is clear: the first mission rode on the attention of the White House and the Vatican. Without that pressure Moscow has less reason to allow buses and flights, and the fear of “filtration” described by a source to the Kyiv Independent remains unverified but real. We think a second evacuation is likelier to be smaller and slower; we cannot be certain.
In a CNN interview on 7 November Zelensky argued that Oleshky proved a ceasefire can be arranged quickly: “The decision to establish a ceasefire in Oleshky was made very quickly. And it worked.” Whether that carries over to the Abu Dhabi talks, we examined here. Earlier coverage: Oleshky evacuation completed as 750 seats readied.
Sources: Kyiv Post, Ukrinform, Vatican News, Radio Svoboda, Ukrainska Pravda
