Germany’s Federal Convention meets on 30 January to choose Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s successor, and nine weeks beforehand there is still no candidate. Since the CSU party conference in Munich, the centre-right has been in an open tussle: Markus Söder is campaigning for Ilse Aigner, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is holding back, and the CDU is floating a name of its own, Ines Claus.
Aigner, 61, is president of the Bavarian state parliament. According to ZDF, Söder first proposed her in April and repeated it at the conference opening: “That would be a great thing,” he said, though the decision would be made “elsewhere”. Delegates applauded; Aigner, in the front row, stood and waved. Merz, through his entourage, said the CDU “as the largest parliamentary group has the claim to propose a candidate”. He wants an “orderly process” and broad backing.
More than a personnel poker game
Two questions are tangled together. Who holds the right to propose within the Union? The CDU is irked by Söder’s pressure and, per the FAZ, insists on its own nominee. And who gains politically? ZDFheute’s analysis suggests a President Aigner would further block Söder’s route to the chancellery, which need not trouble Merz. That is an interpretation, not a fact; none of those involved has confirmed it.
Aigner’s strength is cross-party respect. After twelve men in the job, the coalition leaders agreed in principle on a woman, and SPD whip Dirk Wiese says it is settled for him that a woman should take the office. t-online reports that SPD parliamentary leader Matthias Miersch also backed Aigner on Monday. Ines Claus, 49, a lawyer and CDU leader in the Hesse state parliament, is reportedly Merz’s favourite — unconfirmed, and she is little known beyond Hesse.
The arithmetic of the Convention
The Federal Convention has 1,260 members: the 630 Bundestag deputies plus an equal number of delegates chosen by the state parliaments. The first two rounds need an absolute majority of members; in the third, a plurality suffices (Article 54 of the Basic Law). The AfD and the Left reject Aigner, ZDFheute reports, and the AfD plans its own candidate. The Union therefore needs the SPD and Greens, and Green parliamentary leader Britta Haßelmann says it is “time” to nominate a woman.
Where does that leave us? In our assessment, three paths are plausible. Most likely, Merz proposes Aigner after the CDU leadership meets on 9 November, presented as a joint solution with a CDU stamp. Less likely but possible: a CDU name such as Claus, which would alienate the CSU. The worst case is a failed deal, with the squabble damaging the office before it is filled. Our confidence is limited; the picture can change within days.
For Bavaria there is a special twist: if Aigner is chosen, a Munich politician becomes head of state for the first time. Steinmeier’s term ends on 18 March 2027.
Sources: ZDFheute, ZDFheute (CSU-Parteitag), t-online, Grundgesetz Art. 54
