How fast will Ukraine’s economy grow in 2027? It depends who you ask: by 3.5 per cent, or it shrinks by one. That spread shows how much every forecast rests on assumptions no economist controls.
The latest push comes from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), which has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.6 per cent, 0.4 points lower than in July. For 2027 it expects just 2.1 per cent, and attaches a condition: that Ukraine receives enough foreign financial and military support. Ukraine expert Olga Pindyuk told dpa: “The fifth winter of war is likely to put Ukraine to a severe test.” The institute says the economy has its “back against the wall”.
What is dragging the economy down?
wiiw points to Russian air strikes on energy facilities, infrastructure and loading terminals at the Black Sea ports. Grain exports fell 70 per cent in August compared with July, and the steel industry is suffering badly. Prices add to the pressure: according to the statistics service Derzhstat, inflation rose to 10.0 per cent in September from 8.1 per cent in August, with fuel 46.2 per cent dearer than a year earlier. The National Bank raised its key rate to 16 per cent on 17 September, citing “persistent underlying price pressures” and second-round effects of supply shocks. High interest rates further slow lending and investment.
Why do the forecasts differ so much?
| Institution | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| IMF (13 Oct) | 1.0% | 3.5% |
| World Bank (6 Oct) | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| EBRD | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| wiiw (21 Oct) | 0.6% | 2.1% |
| Dragon Capital | −0.5% | −1.0% |
The IMF sticks to 3.5 per cent for 2027 but plans to review the figure next summer. The World Bank, by contrast, cut its 2027 forecast from 4 to 1.5 per cent because it assumes fighting continues at least to the end of 2027. Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko is considering lowering the government’s own figures to 0.5 per cent for 2026 and 0.8 to 1 per cent for 2027, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
Our reading: the gap is less a dispute over numbers than over two assumptions, how long the fighting lasts and whether the money arrives. The World Bank itself names 2027 financing as the biggest uncertainty. Ukraine reports a €70 billion gap for 2027 on top of the €90 billion EU loan; the Commission is to come up with a proposal, as we have reported. No decision is in sight. Until that is settled, the higher forecasts are better read as scenarios than expectations. The one thing we can say with confidence: no recovery should be expected this winter.
Russia is barely growing either, wiiw says: 0.6 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next. According to Vasily Astrov, Moscow can still finance the war in 2027 because the state can keep borrowing from domestic banks. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have caused a fuel crisis, but not a quick collapse.
For Ukrainians in Germany, the main takeaway is that anyone supporting relatives back home should expect prices to keep rising, especially for fuel and transport. Pensioners and families on fixed incomes are hit hardest.
Sources: dpa/t-online (wiiw forecast), wiiw, Interfax-Ukraine (IMF), Interfax-Ukraine (World Bank), Forbes Ukraine (Derzhstat)
