Update, Sunday 11 October. Two days after Washington licensed Russian diesel, Europe’s response is taking shape: Berlin and Brussels are sticking to their sanctions, while the petrol-station lobby and economists expect little effect at German pumps. Ukraine and its diaspora warn that Moscow is getting fresh money.
To recap: on 9 October the US Treasury published General License No. 135. It permits the sale, delivery, offloading and import of Russian diesel, including into the United States, until 7 April 2027. Debits to US accounts of Russia’s central bank, National Wealth Fund and finance ministry remain barred. After a call with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump cited more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 in November and a million after that, with up to three million tonnes possible “depending on the condition of its diesel refineries”. Moscow, according to Tass, partly eased its export ban, initially for 500,000 tonnes.
Berlin and Brussels: sanctions stay
The German government’s response was notably brief. A spokesperson for Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, according to dpa, that Berlin sticks to its sanctions decisions and is working with European partners on more. Government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said support for Ukraine’s defence “remains unbroken”. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche’s ministry stressed that Germany has bought no oil or oil products from Russia since 2023 and that supply security is guaranteed. The EU’s import ban on Russian diesel has applied since 5 February 2023 and is unchanged.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas criticised the move: more than 80 Ukrainian civilians were killed in Russian attacks within two days, and suspended sanctions give Moscow extra revenue. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hit back sharply. The pattern is not new. When Washington freed up oil stranded at sea in March, Merz said: “Easing sanctions now, for whatever reasons, we consider wrong.” Then the issue was prices during the Iran war; now it is fuel prices ahead of US midterms less than a month away.
What reaches the pump
For German drivers, little is likely to change. The Fuels und Energie association expects no major impact on prices at German filling stations; Tankerkönig data showed no notable swings through Saturday noon. Samina Sultan of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln) does not expect a significant move in the world market price. For scale: the first 300,000 tonnes cover about 14 hours of US consumption, according to EIA figures cited by dpa. The announced 1.8 million tonnes by year-end are more, but not a market shift.
The political signal weighs more. Volodymyr Zelensky called the licence “not fair and not honest”, noting that US negotiators were talking to Kyiv in Miami the same days without mentioning it. He offered to stop refinery strikes if Russia spares Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The World Congress of Ukrainians warned, per Ukrinform, that every dollar spent on Russian diesel helps fund missiles, drones and attacks on Ukrainian homes (a statement by president Pavlo Grod, translated from Ukrainian). It also voiced concern about talk of resuming Russian gas supplies to Europe; the report offers no evidence for that.
Our assessment, with caveats: the licence is time-limited and revocable, so Washington keeps leverage. The most likely outcome is a small direct price effect in Europe and a sharper dispute over the line towards Moscow. It gets harder if countries that already drag their feet cite the US easing in the next EU sanctions package. Whether that happens is open.
Earlier coverage: Diesel deal: Trump tells Kyiv to find a new leader.
Sources: US Treasury (OFAC), General License 135, WirtschaftsWoche/dpa, Ukrinform, Nordkurier/dpa
