Stubb based his assessment on NATO’s military strength. The deterrence relies on missiles, conventional forces, and nuclear weapons. For no power in the world does it make sense to test the alliance’s resolve, he told Bild.
However, Russia wants to sow fear. “Russia wants us Europeans to sit here and discuss: Will Russia escalate? Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Will Russia attack NATO and Europe?” Stubb said of Putin’s intentions. Finland shares a roughly 1,340-kilometer border with Russia and joined NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Stubb considers a Russian mobilization in the fall likely. The Russian army loses between 30,000 and 35,000 soldiers per month but recruits only 27,000 new ones. An attack on another country is therefore extremely unlikely: “That they could suddenly mobilize forces for two fronts – I just don’t see that.”
Experts rather expect smaller provocations against NATO, such as soldiers without insignia at border crossings or so-called false-flag attacks. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) warned of increasing hybrid activities after a ministerial meeting in Flensburg. Ukraine is currently in a stronger position than ever before, Stubb said: “Ukraine has the upper hand and will win this war.”
: Climate target 2026: Federal government warns against jumping to conclusions.
Source: www.handelsblatt.com
