Reports of Russia’s growing economic weakness are piling up. Yet this weakness does not guarantee a swift end to the war, as history shows. Historian Paul Kennedy pointed out over 30 years ago the role of economic overstretch in the decline of great powers. The collapse of the Soviet Union provided further evidence for his thesis.
Currently, there are numerous signs of serious economic overstretch in Russia. The conflict, originally planned as a short “military special operation,” has now lasted longer than World War I. The country’s economic resources appear strained, as reflected in recent developments.
Particularly revealing are statements from countries close to the Kremlin. During a state visit by US President Donald Trump, China’s President Xi Jinping reportedly said that Vladimir Putin might regret the war. This remark suggests growing concern over the military and economic consequences of the conflict.
Another notable comment came from Alexander Lukashenko, Belarusian president and longtime Putin ally. He urged Putin to make peace, saying Russia can no longer win the war. These words are especially significant coming from one of the Kremlin’s most loyal supporters.
The impact of sanctions and blockades on Russia’s economy should not be underestimated. Historically, sanctions were often seen as largely ineffective, but the measures imposed on Russia may prove more effective. Still, history shows that rulers do not stop wars even when their country’s economic overstretch becomes obvious.
Reports of Russia’s economic overstretch are therefore a necessary but not sufficient condition for an early peace. To achieve that, Xi Jinping would likely need to speak much more bluntly to Putin.
A new report warns that Putin’s war economy is on the brink. The authors call for tougher Western sanctions and a special tariff to further strain Russia’s economic resources. Lukashenko, politically dependent on the Kremlin, keeps dodging the Kremlin’s demands.
After Russian attacks, the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra caught fire, a site of historical significance for Ukraine. This shows how the war has not only economic but also cultural and historical dimensions.
Source: www.faz.net
