Kyiv, Moscow and Washington want to sit down again in the first half of November – at working level for now, most likely in Abu Dhabi. No date has been fixed (as of the evening of 25 October). Expectations on all sides are low, and with good reason.
The last trilateral round took place on 17–18 February in Geneva, after meetings in Abu Dhabi on 23–24 January and 4–5 February. According to Radio Svoboda, further talks were postponed because of the strikes on Iran. The new momentum came from US envoy Steve Witkoff: on 20 October he spoke to Zelensky and European officials in Oslo, and on 21 October he spent about three hours with Putin in St Petersburg.
What Zelensky is offering – and what he is not
In an interview with “TSN.Tyzhden” and a Telegram post on Sunday, the Ukrainian president set out his lines. Territory is a “red line” and can only be discussed between leaders. Limits on Ukraine’s army and its neutrality are not up for debate, and Russia cannot dictate security guarantees. “First, we are not trading anything for anything,” he said.
For the working groups, Kyiv proposes concrete outcomes: an energy truce, an arrangement on shipping, grain, an all-for-all prisoner exchange, or a meeting of leaders. “We are not demanding, we are proposing to the Americans,” Zelensky said. An energy truce, in his view, would be “a signal” that Moscow is serious.
Sanctions are the delicate part. Zelensky does not want all of them lifted before a three-way meeting with Trump and Putin: they were imposed for aggression, not for willingness to talk. Without sanctions and frozen assets, Ukraine would lose its leverage with Putin. He says there is “an order for lifting sanctions” that he has discussed with the US delegation. Kyiv is also asking for ten-year funding for its armed forces as a security guarantee.
Moscow’s signal: ready, but in no hurry
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Russian state TV that Moscow would be ready to resume talks after 4 November. Not much should be expected: “not much can be resolved at the first meeting”, he said, calling it an exploratory round. US pressure on Kyiv since the 2025 Alaska summit had “so far not really worked”, partly thanks to European support. Europe, he added, must eventually be at the table; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the first talks would be trilateral, with Europeans able to join later.
The core dispute is untouched: Moscow still demands all of Donbas, Zelensky rejects that. According to Berliner Zeitung, the Kremlin reacted coolly to Witkoff’s new proposals.
The timing stands out. Zelensky said that if Russia’s readiness to talk is only a tactic to avoid escalation with the US before “elections”, it will become clear in November. He probably means the US midterms on 3 November – and Ushakov’s 4 November is the day after. That is our reading; it is not confirmed.
The first test is local
How robust the process is will show even before Abu Dhabi, in Oleshky. The pause in fighting for the Kherson-region town is due to start at 4 a.m. on 27 October according to Russian officials, while the White House named 29 October. We have reported on this before. If the pause holds, it would be a small sign of trust; if it fails, scepticism ahead of the talks will grow.
Our assessment, with moderate confidence: the likeliest outcome is a round with limited results – a prisoner exchange or a time-limited energy truce, say – while territory and sanctions stay with the leaders. A Zelensky–Trump–Putin meeting remains a wish. The APEC summit in China on 18–19 November and a G20 summit in Miami on 14–15 December are named as possible markers; neither is confirmed.
Sources: Ukrinform, Radio Svoboda, Armyinform (Zelensky’s Telegram post), Berliner Zeitung, Moscow Times
