An unusually massive Kelvin wave of warm water in the equatorial Pacific is triggering a potentially disruptive El Niño cycle, according to Deutsche Welle. China’s National Climate Center issued an official warning on May 29, confirming that sea surface temperatures have rapidly entered an El Niño state. Meteorological models predict the system will develop into a moderate to strong event by summer and peak in autumn and winter.
The effects are already being felt: hotter and drier weather across Southeast Asia is hampering rice and palm oil production. Households throughout the region face higher costs for fuel, food, and transport. For India, the timing is particularly bad: the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the southwest monsoon at only 90 percent of the long-term average, officially classified as “below normal.”
“The probability of strong El Niño events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring,” said Gao Rong, deputy director of China’s National Climate Center. “In the western Pacific, the shift could disrupt the East Asian monsoon and raise the risk of floods in southern China and droughts elsewhere.” In China, heavier autumn rains south of the Yangtze River threaten to damage the rice harvest, while India faces a monsoon deficit and lower yields of rice, pulses, sugarcane, and oilseeds.
Source: www.businesstoday.in
