At the CSU party conference in Munich on Saturday, the Chancellor’s only reference to Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s succession came in his greeting. “Dear Markus Söder, dear Ilse Aigner,” Friedrich Merz began, and delegates applauded so long that he had to pause. On the election of the Federal President itself he said nothing in a speech of about 50 minutes (ZDFheute, t-online).
The clock is running. The 18th Federal Convention meets in the Bundestag on Saturday 30 January 2027; Steinmeier’s term ends on 18 March 2027. The convention has 1,260 members: 630 Bundestag deputies and the same number sent by the state parliaments. Any member may propose a candidate; there is no formal selection process and no debate. The first two ballots require an absolute majority, the third only the most votes (Bundestag).
The CSU has a favourite, the CDU has a claim
Söder floated Aigner, president of the Bavarian Landtag, in April: “If Ilse Aigner wants it, she has my full sympathy and support,” he told Münchner Merkur and tz. In Munich he added that he would “wholeheartedly wish it for her”, but that the decision would be made “elsewhere” (Handelsblatt). CSU deputy chair Manfred Weber demanded in late September that the Union and the SPD settle within four weeks; that deadline is now expiring (dpa).
Merz announced in April that he would consult the SPD and CSU leaders in the autumn, and at the end of July called Aigner “certainly a respectable, conceivable Federal President”. Shortly before the conference, CDU circles told the FAZ the party had not given up its claim to nominate its own candidate. Karin Prien, Julia Klöckner and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer are mentioned; Boris Rhein has waved the idea away. The SPD makes gender a criterion: Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil said in April it was “time for it to be a woman”.
By dpa’s count, the Union and the SPD together hold a majority of about 50 votes in the convention. Neither can succeed without the other, nor without the Union itself.
What if they do not agree?
Three paths are conceivable. First, the coalition leaders agree on a woman candidate in November, possibly Aigner, and nominate her jointly. That would be the calmest route. Second, the CDU pushes through its own choice and the CSU has to stand down, with consequences for the coalition mood. Third, the question stays open into January and a name surfaces late. In theory proposals are possible up to election day, but t-online reads that as a sign the political centre is divided. That even a formally safe majority is no guarantee was shown in 2010, when Christian Wulff needed three ballots.
In our assessment the first path is the most likely, though far from certain: Merz is silent, Söder is conspicuously restrained, and the SPD above all wants a woman. There is also a power question inside the Union: according to dpa, a President Aigner would further block Söder’s route to the Chancellery, because the CSU holding two of the three highest state offices is seen as unlikely. That explains why the appointment stirs the Union more than any policy issue.
For Ukrainians in Germany the vote is not an everyday issue, but it is a signal: the Federal President represents Germany abroad, signs laws and sets the tone in speeches. Steinmeier has repeatedly spoken about Ukraine in that role; whether his successor continues that line is for the candidates to answer.
Sources: Deutscher Bundestag, ZDFheute, t-online, Handelsblatt, dpa/infranken
