While Germany sleeps, the polls are only just closing in Indiana and Kentucky. On Tuesday Americans elect the whole House, all 435 seats, and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. ZDFheute expects a clear picture between 5am and 7am Central European Time, though tight races can take days because mail-in ballots must be counted.
The starting point: in the Senate Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45, and two independents vote with the Democrats, making 47 in practice (Senate.gov). Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority. In the House, ZDFheute puts Republicans at 218 and Democrats at 214.
The polls lean Democratic. According to Tagesspiegel, Democrats lead in nearly all national surveys by seven to eleven points. The Economist model gives them a 94 per cent chance in the House and 53 per cent in the Senate; Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin puts the Senate at 80 per cent, and the Polymarket betting market at 65 per cent, according to Berliner Zeitung. That spread shows how fragile a Senate majority is: seven races are considered open, and Iowa is level. Berliner Zeitung also cites a Reuters/Ipsos approval rating for Trump of just 32 per cent.
What a Democratic win would really change for Ukraine
Sobriety is in order. There are three plausible outcomes.
Democrats win only the House. The likeliest case. They could launch investigations and block bills, but pass nothing while the Senate stays Republican and Trump holds the veto. The Kyiv Independent points to one route: attaching Ukraine measures to must-pass legislation such as the defence budget. Brookings analyst Hamilton thinks Trump is unlikely to veto such a bill because it funds the Pentagon.
Democrats win both chambers. Even then they would usually lack the 60 Senate votes needed for major bills and the two-thirds majority to override a veto, unless Republican hawks defect. Vincent Michelot of Sciences Po Lyon told RFI, as reported by Berliner Zeitung, that Congress has little say in foreign and security policy, with most influence coming after the fact. A Council on Foreign Relations expert quoted by the Kyiv Independent is blunter: Congress cannot compel Trump to change his Russia diplomacy. Trump himself says that if he loses he will become “Mister Veto”, Berliner Zeitung reports.
Republicans keep both chambers. Least likely on the polls; for Ukraine nothing would change.
Some levers do exist. Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks, who could chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced a bipartisan bill to stop Trump’s diesel deal with Moscow, according to Berliner Zeitung. And hearings can build pressure even when they decide nothing.
Our read, with the caution forecasts demand: even a Democratic triumph will not bring back Biden-era Ukraine policy. The new Congress only convenes in January, and until then Trump has a free hand. For Berlin and Brussels that means not building their own support plans on a turn in Washington. The key question is how many Republican senators distance themselves from Trump, and tonight will not answer it.
To follow along: the first polls close around midnight CET in Indiana and Kentucky, most key states between 1.30am and 5am.
Sources: Senate.gov, ZDFheute, Tagesspiegel, Berliner Zeitung, Kyiv Independent
