Had Katherina Reiche’s fuel price cap existed in the spring, nothing would probably have changed at the pump. Calculations by the Tagesspiegel and the news agency AFP show that German prices did exceed the EU average in some weeks after early March, but the conditions in the draft would never once have been met. The SPD, which pushed the cap through in September, now calls the bill a law to prevent a price cap.
Three weeks in a row, five points above the EU average
The draft “Kraftstoffhöchstpreisgesetz” (fuel maximum price act), which the Economy Minister has sent into early inter-ministerial coordination, creates only the option of a cap, not an automatic brake. The federal government could set maximum prices only if petrol or diesel rise by more than five percentage points faster than the average of the other EU states for three consecutive weeks. Petrol and diesel are assessed separately, using the European Commission’s weekly prices excluding taxes, according to Reuters. The power would lapse after three months at most, and the Länder could suspend it if supply is threatened or set their own regional prices.
The Tagesspiegel tested whether that would have been enough in 2026. Its preliminary result: the five-point gap was reached three times for petrol and five times for diesel, but never in consecutive weeks. One caveat: the paper compared Germany with an EU average that still includes Germany, whereas the draft excludes it. According to the paper, that changes little, as the gap to the threshold is wide.
Marissa Reiserer of Greenpeace points to a structural reason: Germany heavily shapes the EU average, and price jumps after oil shocks hit all of Europe at once. Energy economist Claudia Kemfert told the Funke newspapers it was “relief with the handbrake on”: if prices rise everywhere, nothing happens.
Why the ministry is hesitating
The word for supply security appears 20 times in the 18-page draft, the Tagesspiegel counted. The paper calls maximum prices a serious intervention to be avoided in principle and usable only “in the most extreme emergency as a crisis instrument” (as quoted by WEB.DE). The ministry says: “If maximum prices are set too low, fuel deliveries can become uneconomical.” According to Handelsblatt, the draft cites Hungary, which had to scrap its cap when traders stopped supplying. A windfall tax is judged legally unsound in the short term, and a new fuel tax cut is ruled out by the budget.
The gap to earlier promises is clear from the Bundestag record. In the topical debate on 18 March, the CDU’s Tilman Kuban promised the “Austrian model” of at most one price rise per day, and Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig announced stronger disclosure duties for oil companies. A price cap was not mentioned.
The SPD’s response is mixed. Deputy parliamentary leader Armand Zorn welcomed the draft as a first proposal and will judge it by whether it “effectively” limits oil-industry margins. Economic spokesman Sebastian Roloff told Handelsblatt it falls “far too short”. Saarland’s Minister-President Anke Rehlinger called it a “Spritpreisdeckel-Verhinderungsgesetz”, a law that prevents the cap. The Greens favour a windfall tax, and the Left’s Janine Wissler accused Reiche of sabotaging the coalition decision.
And if the draft stays as it is?
Reports differ on timing. Reuters says cabinet was due to decide this Wednesday, with the Bundestag and Bundesrat to follow before Christmas; dpa gives no cabinet date. What is clear is that checks begin only with data from the second full week of January. Since three consecutive weeks are required, a cap could by our calculation take effect at the earliest towards the end of January.
In the editors’ view, three paths are conceivable. If the draft stands, the cap becomes a threat with no effect at the pump. The SPD could force changes, such as a lower threshold or a fixed cent-per-litre target; the pre-Christmas deadline favours a compromise, though that is not certain. And Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is pursuing an EU-level windfall tax, which would take months.
For drivers, another date matters more: the fuel tax cut ends in late December, worth about 17 cents per litre including VAT according to Reuters. Because the cap mechanism is based on prices excluding taxes, that jump would not trigger it.
Earlier coverage: Spritpreisdeckel: Reiche legt Gesetzentwurf vor
Sources: German Bundestag, Tagesspiegel, ZDFheute, taz (Reuters), WEB.DE (Handelsblatt)
