Rheinmetall has cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year, to about €13.2 billion from the €13.7–14.2 billion it gave in August. It now expects an operating margin of around 18.5 per cent instead of 19. Status: 4 November.
The quarterly numbers point the other way. Third-quarter sales rose to €3.149 billion, more than a third above last year. Operating profit climbed 62 per cent to €553 million and the margin improved from 14.8 to 17.5 per cent. Order intake was €2.893 billion, slightly below a year earlier – a “good, if slightly lower level”, the company said, as quoted by dpa-afx.
What slips, and what does not
The reasons are delays, not cancellations. Rheinmetall no longer expects the large Boxer vehicle order, project “Arminius”, to land this year, so down payments and sales move into 2027. On artillery ammunition, the company says delays in accepting production lots are “foreseeable”. Revenue from its tie-up with the Dutch firm Destinus will also fall short of plan. Operating free cash flow is still expected to be positive for the year; in the third quarter it was minus €82 million (minus €168 million a year ago).
In August the group had already trimmed its target from €14–14.5 billion to €13.7–14.2 billion after the Bundeswehr scrapped the F126 frigate, worth up to €300 million in lost sales. The order backlog stood at €80.5 billion at the end of June, and CEO Armin Papperger put the book-to-bill ratio at “greater than 3”. Demand is not the problem; acceptance and delivery are lagging.
That matters beyond the stock market. Arminius is reported at about €12.4 billion plus €2 billion for services, and up to €26 billion with options. The Bundestag vote has been pencilled in for 9 December. Whether the new forecast touches that date is not clear from the company’s statements. What is clear: even a market leader with a full order book can miss timetables, so acceptance procedures, budget decisions and supply chains – not money alone – set the pace of rearmament.
Our assessment, with caution: in the short run this looks more like a shift than a setback, with revenue arriving in 2027. The bigger risk would be repeated slippage in ammunition and vehicles, the very areas where Germany and Ukraine need fast deliveries. The full quarterly statement is due on Thursday.
Earlier coverage: Russian strike on Komyshuvacha: death toll rises to 40.
Sources: Börsen-Zeitung (dpa-afx), BondGuide, Rheinmetall, Heidelberg24, Kapitalmarktexperten
